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“We have made progress, such as increasing the direct tax to 15% and including the activity in the Selective Tax. Those benefiting from social programmes and those who joined the Desenrola programme were also prohibited from betting.”

He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.

“The debate about prohibition will remain open in the country for the next few years,” he said. “It will be an institutional debate between the Supreme Court, Congress and the executive branch.

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That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

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Santos went on to call Kalshi an “unserious company”, claiming that it also “violates its own notices and deadlines”. 

By the way @Kalshi is such an unserious company it violates its own notices and deadlines lol.

On August 7th they gave us a 30 day notice and today they leaked/ announced once again their frivolous nonsense.

Leaking and attention seeking seem to be the M/O of this…

Kalshi enforced penalties under multiple exchange rules designed to mirror federal market regulations. These include prohibitions on trading when a participant can influence the outcome of an event, trading on material non-public information and engaging in manipulative or fraudulent practices.