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The remote gaming duty hike from 21% to 40% in April is also expected to have a significant impact on the black market, with Regulus estimating it could drive the market to be worth up to €1 billion, as consumers choose illegal offerings to access unrestricted bonuses.
Other studies have made similar estimations. In June last year two thirds of bettors surveyed by YouGov said the tax increase, which will also hit online sports betting from next year, would drive them to play with unlicensed operators.
The UK has historically maintained a high channelisation rate due to it being particuarly mature with a huge competitive offering. According to the report, up to 1,491 licensed sites provides sufficient choice for engaged players.
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The DSWV, representing licensed sports-betting operators, broadly welcomed the law enforcement action as a necessary response to the illegal market’s growth and associated risks.
“This successful investigation clearly demonstrates the scale that the illegal gambling market has now reached,” said Mathias Dahms, president of the DSWV.
Dahms highlighted the significant dangers unlicensed operators pose to player protection and the overall integrity of the licensed market. He cited the absence of controls such as deposit limits, identity verification and player suspension tools.
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Prediction market volume attributable to “takers”—recreational and retail traders who pull liquidity from exchanges—is forecast to reach $190 billion this year.
That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.