Crazy Octopus

About Crazy Octopus

Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).

Assuming that 8% spurt is realized, it’d be impressive because since the end of the 2025 football season, only Missouri and Alberta, Canada joined the live and legal sports betting party with Arkansas opening to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year.

How to play Crazy Octopus

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

What is Crazy Octopus?

The mystery surrounding who won the $1.04 billion Powerball jackpot drawn on Aug. 12, 2026, has been solved—sort of. The Illinois Lottery announced that the winner came forward this week to claim the prize but chose to remain anonymous.

The big Powerball winner took advantage of Section 7.2 of the Illinois Lottery Law, which governs disclosure rules regarding winners’ identities.

Under Section 7.2, a winner of a prize of $250,000 or more can request to keep their name and municipality of residence confidential while completing their Illinois Lottery Winner Claim Form.